DRAMA CATEGORIES

This year, the drama categories are bound to be dominated by one show in particular: Succession. All but guaranteed to win the top prize, you could honestly predict Succession in every drama category (where eligible) and it would be valid. Brian Cox’ confounding placement in the Lead Actor category aside, you can make a solid case that just about every actor from the series deserves to win. After being awarded the top prize for its previous two seasons, not to mention that this season - its final season - was the series’ most critically acclaimed, make no mistake… Succession is going out with a bang!

As for the non-Succession shows, place your bets on good years for Better Call Saul, The Last of Us, and The White Lotus, all of which are primed for nominations in Series and Acting. Next up, most likely, are Emmy darling The Crown and newcomer Andor, though maybe not as likely as the aforementioned shows due to the latter’s lack of popularity and the former’s mixed reception. That said, their performances at the winter awards point to a decent nomination haul. 

Other shows that could perform well and earn a nomination for the top prize are returning Emmy juggernauts Yellowjackets and The Handmaid’s Tale. Yellowjackets is primed for, at worst, an acting nomination for Melanie Lynskey, but, overall, it could suffer from this season’s more mixed reception relative to Season One. Similarly, Handmaid’s muted response this season could hurt the show. Another returning Emmy nominee is The Boys. While its early release date can be tough to overcome, its rising popularity, increased acclaim, political relevance, and recent uptick in buzz due to some stellar campaigning could push the show to several nominations. New shows like The Old Man could receive some acting nods, but possibly come up short of an Outstanding Drama Series nod due to a tepid response to the show overall. 

Lastly, you have House of the Dragon. Obviously, the Emmys have a soft spot for Game of Thrones, even awarding the show for its divisive final season, and Dragon was a mostly well-received and popular show. However, its performance at the guild awards makes me think the show’s hype has severely suffered since it has been off the air, and with HBO’s attention elsewhere, I have a feeling this spinoff might not impress the way one might think a Game of Thrones show would.

Outstanding Drama Series:

1. Succession

2. The Last of Us

3. The White Lotus

4. Better Call Saul

5. The Crown

6. Andor

7. Yellowjackets

8. The Boys

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series:

1. Kieran Culkin - Succession

2. Bob Odenkirk - Better Call Saul

3. Jeremy Strong - Succession

4. Pedro Pascal - The Last of Us

5. Diego Luna - Andor

6. Jeff Bridges - The Old Man

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series:

1. Sarah Snook - Succession

2. Melanie Lynskey - Yellowjackets

3. Bella Ramsey - The Last of Us

4. Imelda Staunton - The Crown

5. Emma D’Arcy - House of the Dragon

6. Elisabeth Moss - The Handmaid’s Tale

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:

1. Matthew MacFadyen - Succession

2. F. Murray Abraham - The White Lotus

3. Alan Ruck - Succession

4. Alexander Skarsgård - Succession

5. Jonathan Pryce - The Crown

6. Jonathan Banks - Better Call Saul

7. Michael Imperioli - The White Lotus

8. John Lithgow - The Old Man

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:

1. Jennifer Coolidge - The White Lotus

2. Rhea Seehorn - Better Call Saul

3. Aubrey Plaza - The White Lotus

4. Elizabeth Debicki - The Crown

5. Meghan Fahy - The White Lotus

6. Carol Burnett - Better Call Saul

7. J. Smith-Cameron - Succession

8. Sabrina Impacciatore - The White Lotus

Outstanding Direction for a Drama Series:

1. Mark Mylod - “Connor’s Wedding,” Succession

2. Peter Hoar - “Long, Long Time,” The Last Of Us

3. Mike White - “Arrividerci,” The White Lotus

4. Andrij Parekh - “America Decides,” Succession

5. Benjamin Caron - “Rix Road,” Andor

6. Anya Adams - “Burial,” Yellowjackets

7. Peter Gould - “Saul Gone,” Better Call Saul

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series:

1. Jesse Armstrong - “Connor’s Wedding,” Succession

2. Mike White - “Arrividerci,” The White Lotus

3. Craig Mazin - “Long, Long Time,” The Last Of Us

4. Peter Gould - “Saul Gone,” Better Call Saul

5. Peter Morgan - “Gunpowder,” The Crown

6. Jessica Chou - “Herogasm,” The Boys

7. Tony Gilroy - “Rix Road,” Andor

COMEDY CATEGORIES

There’s certainly a mustachioed elephant in the room in the comedy categories. There’s no doubt in my mind that the reigning back-to-back champion, Ted Lasso, is going to return to receive a handful of nominations. However, the final season's mixed reception amongst critics and audiences alike makes me think it could miss some key nominations, especially since something has come along that could end its streak. I’m talking about Abbott Elementary. Even more critically acclaimed and beloved by audiences than the series’ award-winning first season, Abbott Elementary swept the winter awards (granted, Ted Lasso wasn’t in the running), and in my opinion, is bound to overperform on nomination morning. I expect more acting nominations than it received last year (four), and it could possibly take the top prize.

Returning Emmy favorites Barry and Only Murders in the Building are bound to hear their name called on July 12, although the latter’s early release date could result in missing out on some major nominations. A new show certain to receive attention is The Bear. With its second season airing recently to rave reviews, and Jeremy Allen White on a nice win streak for the role, I can’t imagine a world where The Bear doesn’t receive an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination.  

For the remaining three slots in Outstanding Comedy Series, you have returning favorites The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and What We Do in the Shadows. Both shows could suffer from the new voting system, especially a show like Shadows since it has spent its Emmy run on the bottom half of the lineup. As for Maisel, the show hit a rough patch in terms of its viewership, buzz is at an all-time low, and while its final season wasn’t bad per se, it certainly wasn’t what it once was. That said, it ended on such a high note that I suspect the three main players will once again get nominations, so it’s still very much in the hunt.

As for the new shows in contention, Poker Face is a big question mark. Rian Johnson’s mystery series has many possibilities above the line, and it’s positioned to be Peacock’s first foray into the Emmy race. Shrinking also has what it takes to get in, and it’s a shoo-in for, at worst, a Supporting Actor nomination and possible win for Harrison Ford. That said, the show’s slighter nature may not be every voter's cup of tea. And finally, you have Wednesday, which wasn’t exactly critically acclaimed, but its popularity and cultural impact could be enough to garner some votes, especially with Netflix’ recent awards push.

Outstanding Comedy Series:

1. Abbott Elementary

2. Ted Lasso

3. The Bear

4. Barry

5. Only Murders in the Building

6. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

7. Shrinking

8. What We Do in the Shadows

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series:

1. Jeremy Allen White - The Bear

2. Jason Sudeikis - Ted Lasso

3. Bill Hader - Barry

4. Steve Martin - Only Murders in the Building

5. Jason Segel - Shrinking

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series:

1. Quinta Brunson - Abbott Elementary

2. Jenna Ortega - Wednesday

3. Rachel Brosnahan - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

4. Natasha Lyonne - Poker Face

5. Christina Applegate - Dead to Me

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series:

1. Harrison Ford - Shrinking

2. Brett Goldstein - Ted Lasso

3. Tyler James Williams - Abbott Elementary

4. Henry Winkler - Barry

5. Anthony Carrigan - Barry

6. Tony Shalhoub - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

7. Chris Perfetti - Abbott Elementary

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series:

1. Sheryl Lee Ralph - Abbott Elementary

2. Hannah Waddingham - Ted Lasso

3. Janelle James - Abbott Elementary

4. Ayo Edebiri - The Bear

5. Lisa Ann Walter - Abbott Elementary

6. Alex Borstein - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

7. Juno Temple - Ted Lasso

Outstanding Direction in a Comedy Series:

1. Bill Hader - “wow,” Barry

2. Christopher Storer - “Review,” The Bear

3. Declan Lowney - “So Long, Farewell,” Ted Lasso

4. Randall Einhorn - “Teacher’s Conference,” Abbott Elementary

5. Amy Sherman-Palladino - “Four Minutes,” The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

6. Gail Mancuso - “That ‘90’s Pilot,” That ‘90s Show

Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series:

1. Quinta Brunson - “Development Day,” Abbott Elementary

2. Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, and Jason Sudeikis - “So Long, Farewell,” Ted Lasso

3. Christopher Storer - “System,” The Bear

4. Bill Hader - “wow,” Barry

5. John Hoffman, Matteo Borghese, and Rob Turbovsky - “I Know Who Did It,” Only Murders In the Building

6. Bill Lawrence, Jason Segel, and Brett Goldstein - “Coin Flip,” Shrinking

7. Marika Sawyer - “Go Flip Yourself,” What We Do in the Shadows

LIMITED CATEGORIES

To be blunt, this collection of categories is rough. It’s just slim pickings, which is why if my predictions seem to resemble other predictions you’ve seen, it’s because there aren't a lot of realistic options to choose from. Nonetheless, there are three shows that I’m fairly confident will not only score a nomination for the top prize, but multiple acting, writing, and/or directing nods based on their performances at the winter awards and popularity: Beef, Black Bird, and Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story.

Beyond those three, Daisy Jones & The Six and Fleishman is in Trouble seem like pretty safe bets, although one of these missing wouldn’t fully surprise me. Daisy Jones is a reasonably popular show, and it’s a very easy show for the average voter to get on board with, which could very well lead to multiple acting nominations. However, the show’s generally middling reviews could hold it back. As for Fleishman is in Trouble, reviews are glowing, but it never really took off. Plus, other than Claire Danes, none of the actors are seriously poised for a nomination. Still though, like I said above, there aren’t a lot of options otherwise.

The most likely option aside from those mentioned thus far is George & Tammy. It was received well enough, and stars Jessica Chastain and (maybe) Michael Shannon will most certainly earn nods. The main hurdle this miniseries faces is that it came and went so quickly that I don’t know how many voters actually saw it or will go out of their way to vote for it. The only other options I’m really considering are The English, Love & Death, The Patient, and Welcome to Chippendales, and that is mostly because they might receive major acting nominations.

Outstanding Limited Series:

1. Black Bird

2. Beef

3. Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

4. Fleishman is in Trouble

5. Daisy Jones & The Six

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series:

1. Ali Wong - Beef

2. Jessica Chastain - George & Tammy

3. Riley Keough - Daisy Jones & The Six

4. Lizzy Caplan - Fleishman is in Trouble

5. Elizabeth Olsen - Love & Death

6. Rachel Weisz - Dead Ringers

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series:

1. Evan Peters - Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

2. Taron Egerton - Black Bird

3. Steven Yeun - Beef

4. Jesse Eisenberg - Fleishman is in Trouble

5. Michael Shannon - George & Tammy

6. Steve Carell - The Patient

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series:

1. Niecy Nash-Betts - Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

2. Claire Danes - Fleishman is in Trouble

3. Camila Morrone - Daisy Jones & The Six

4. Maria Bello - Beef

5. Ashley Park - Beef

6. Michael Learnerd - Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

7. Nabiyah Be - Daisy Jones & The Six

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series:

1. Paul Walter Hauser - Black Bird

2. Richard Jenkins - Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

3. Ray Liotta - Black Bird

4. Young Mazino - Beef

5. Joseph Lee - Beef

6. Domhnall Gleeson - The Patient

7. Rodney Burford Jr.  - Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story 

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series:

1. Michaël Roskam - “Pilot,” Black Bird

2. Lee Sung Jin - “Figures Of Light,” Beef

3. Paris Barclay - “Silenced,” Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

4. Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton - “Me-Time,” Fleishman Is In Trouble

5. Jake Schreier - “The Great Fabricator,” Beef

6. Joe Chappelle - “The Place I Lie,” Black Bird

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series:

1. Lee Sung Jin - “The Bird’s Don’t Sing, They Screech In Pain,” Beef

2. Dennis Lehane - “The Place I Lie,” Black Bird

3. Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan - “Bad Meat,” Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

4. David McMillan and Janet Mock - “Silenced,” Dahmer: Monster - The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

5. Taffy Brodesser-Akner - “Me-Time,” Fleishman Is In Trouble

6. Scott Neustadter - “Track 5: Fire,” Daisy Jones & The Six